Every institution, economist, media outlet, and data source we monitor for narrative-shaping commentary. Organized by category, prioritized by signal quality, mapped to live narratives.
| Source | What to watch | Frequency | Narratives | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Central Banks & Official
5 sources
|
||||
|
federalreserve.gov
|
FOMC statements, minutes, Chair press conferences, Beige Book
|
8x/year + ongoing
|
Critical | |
|
@KevinWarsh
|
Speeches, testimony, interviews post May 22 swearing-in
|
Weekly
|
Critical | |
|
treasury.gov
|
Debt issuance announcements, auction results, policy statements
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
boj.or.jp
|
Policy decisions, yield curve control updates — crucial for yen carry trade
|
8x/year
|
High | |
|
ecb.europa.eu
|
Rate decisions, Lagarde press conferences, financial stability reviews
|
8x/year
|
High | |
|
Supranational Institutions
5 sources
|
||||
|
imf.org/weo
|
WEO (Apr/Oct), Fiscal Monitor, Global Financial Stability Report. Apr 2026: Shadow of War
|
2x/year + updates
|
Critical | |
|
bis.org
|
Quarterly Review, Annual Economic Report. Mar 2026: sovereign bond divergence, mounting fiscal unease
|
Quarterly
|
High | |
|
iif.com
|
Global Debt Monitor (titled Return of Bond Vigilantes). $348T global debt record, $9T EM refinancing 2026
|
Quarterly
|
High | |
|
worldbank.org
|
GEP reports, EM vulnerability assessments, debt sustainability analysis
|
2x/year
|
Medium | |
|
oecd.org
|
Economic Outlook, G20 policy recommendations, fiscal sustainability scoring
|
2x/year
|
Medium | |
|
US Fiscal Watchdogs
6 sources
|
||||
|
cbo.gov
|
OBBBA score ($3.8T), baseline projections, mandatory spending analysis
|
Ongoing
|
Critical | |
|
crfb.org
|
OBBBA: $3-5T debt impact. Real-time fiscal analysis. Marc Goldwein, Maya MacGuineas
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
brookings.edu
|
OBBBA assessment: $3.7-5.1T deficit increase, 28-45pp debt/GDP by 2054. William Gale, Louise Sheiner
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
piie.com
|
Trade, fiscal, Fed independence analysis. Adam Posen on dollar dominance
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
|
OBBBA: GDP -4.6% by 2054. Independent fiscal scoring of legislation
|
On legislation
|
High | |
|
ced.org
|
Business community fiscal policy views, debt sustainability
|
Monthly
|
Low | |
|
Investment Banks & Research
11 sources
|
||||
|
goldmansachs.com/insights
|
Chief Economist. Soft landing calls, gold $5,400 target, AI capex Phase 3 thesis
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
jpmorgan.com/insights
|
Kay Herr: bond vigilantes are back (May 15). Cembalest: Eye on the Market weekly
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
bofasecurities.com
|
Declared vigilantes returned May 23. Weekly flow data, Treasury auction analysis
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
morganstanley.com/ideas
|
Chief US Economist. Rate path, labor market, EM differentiation thesis
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
db.com/research
|
Jim Reid: daily morning note, long-term asset study. Historical context specialist
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
pimco.com/insights
|
Group CIO. US elevated deficits + high rates = sell US bonds, buy international quality
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
blackrock.com/institutions/insights
|
Weekly commentary. AI keeps trumping tariffs. Larry Fink annual letter
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
bridgewater.com/research-library
|
Daily observations. Changing world order, AI dot-com parallel, gold as reserve asset
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
sequoiacap.com/articles
|
The $600B question. Q2-Q4 2026 earnings are verdict window
|
Quarterly
|
High | |
|
man.com/insights
|
AI bubble: financial architecture oversized, overleveraged. Circular financing risk
|
Monthly
|
Medium | |
|
yardeni.com
|
Fed must hike July to appease vigilantes. Roaring 2020s. Gold $10K by 2030
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
Independent Economists & Analysts
8 sources
|
||||
|
substack.com/@lawrencesummers
|
Fiscal dominance warnings, ARP criticism, bond vigilante commentary
|
Weekly
|
Critical | |
|
@elerianm
|
Term premium rising for right reasons. Last mile inflation sticky. Daily FT/Bloomberg columns
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
atlasCapital.com
|
Stagflationary debt trap. EM stress. Weekly macro commentary
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
gtmacro.com
|
Bretton Woods III. Petrodollar end. Dollar milkshake dynamic. Monthly notes
|
Monthly
|
High | |
|
doubleline.com
|
Short 30Y Treasury. Gold $5K+. Dollar declining. Quarterly webcast
|
Quarterly + Twitter
|
High | |
|
stayathomemacro.substack.com
|
Sahm Rule triggered 2024. Fed credibility under Warsh. Labor market focus
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
employamerica.org
|
Fed independence skeptic. Warsh accountability tracking. Labor market data
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
rockefellerinternational.com
|
AI bubble if rates rise. Dollar dominance fading. EM opportunity thesis
|
Monthly
|
Medium | |
|
Financial Media & Podcasts
8 sources
|
||||
|
bloomberg.com/oddlots
|
Bond Car Wreck podcast (May 20). Best contextual macro podcast. 3x/week
|
3x/week
|
Critical | |
|
bloomberg.com/realyield
|
Kay Herr vigilantes interview (May 15). Daily bond market focus
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
ft.com/alphaville
|
Daily free blog. Best technical market analysis. Debt sustainability deep dives
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
wsj.com/heard
|
Daily markets column. Fiscal analysis, bank earnings, Fed commentary
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
macrohive.com
|
COT analysis, macro positioning, EM flows. Weekly COT summary invaluable
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
themacrocompass.substack.com
|
Liquidity and macro framework. Bond market regime analysis
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
grantspub.com
|
Contrarian fixed income. Oldest continuous financial newsletter. Bi-weekly
|
Bi-weekly
|
Medium | |
|
realvision.com
|
Macro video interviews. Gold, crypto, dollar decline thesis. Global macro macro
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
Primary Data Sources
6 sources
|
||||
|
cftc.gov/cotreports
|
Commitment of Traders. Released every Friday at 3:30pm ET for prior Tuesday positions
|
Weekly (Friday)
|
All
|
Critical |
|
treasurydirect.gov
|
Bid-to-cover, foreign demand, primary dealer takedowns. Key vigilante data
|
Weekly
|
Critical | |
|
fred.stlouisfed.org
|
DGS10, DGS30, ACMTP10 (term premium), DFII10 (TIPS). Free, authoritative
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
gold.org
|
Monthly central bank purchase data. 95% of CBs expect to grow reserves. Quarterly demand trends
|
Monthly
|
High | |
|
bis.org/statistics
|
$300B EM external debt maturing 2026-27. Cross-border lending. Currency composition
|
Quarterly
|
High | |
|
iif.com/capital-flows
|
EM capital outflows at highest since 2015 taper tantrum. Weekly flow data
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
Substack — Macro & Institutional
14 sources
|
||||
|
adamtooze.substack.com
|
Columbia historian. Global macro, geopolitics, dollar system, US fiscal coordination failure. 3x/week. Apr 2026: US political system losing coordinating capacity is the core structural risk.
|
3x/week
|
Critical | |
|
pettis.substack.com
|
Carnegie Endowment. China trade imbalances, dollar as absorber of last resort, capital flow taxation thesis. Essential for EM currency and gold narratives.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
robinjbrooks.substack.com
|
Former IIF Chief Economist. Daily FX and capital flow tracking. Sep 2025: bond vigilantes have definitely come out to play. France and Japan most vulnerable.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/levine
|
300K subscribers. Best daily financial markets explainer. FTX, SVB, AI bubble coverage. Deadpan legal/finance analysis. Daily.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
newsletter.doomberg.com
|
Anonymous. #1 finance Substack. Energy markets, geopolitics, macro risk. Contrarian, data-driven. Widely read by institutional investors. Energy-gold-dollar nexus.
|
3x/week
|
High | |
|
theovershoot.substack.com
|
Co-author Trade Wars are Class Wars with Pettis. Global trade imbalances, current account dynamics, EM vulnerability. Weekly deep dives.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
setser.substack.com
|
Council on Foreign Relations. Former Treasury. China reserve accumulation, EM capital flows, dollar system. Essential for EM and gold narratives.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
themacrocompass.substack.com
|
Former ING Head of Fixed Income. Liquidity and macro framework. Bond market regime analysis. 2022: macro vigilantes are waking up. COT positioning integration.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
stayathomemacro.substack.com
|
Former Fed economist. Sahm Rule creator. Fed credibility, labor market, recession signals. Jan 2026: economy quietly shifted, everyone watching wrong alarm.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
ritholtz.com
|
Bloomberg Opinion, MiB podcast. Daily curated macro reads, bias analysis, behavioral finance. Best link aggregator for narrative tracking.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
netinterest.co
|
Former hedge fund manager. Financial sector deep dives — banking, credit, monetary systems. Essential for SVB/banking crisis follow-through and private credit bubble.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
citrini.substack.com
|
Featured Bloomberg/Economist. AI, GLP-1, US fiscal megatrends. Thematic equity primers. Up 200%+ since May 2023. Good AI bubble signal tracker.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
substack.com/@michaelburry
|
The Big Short. Now his sole focus. Stocks, markets, bubbles through historical patterns. Watch for AI bubble and index fund bubble calls.
|
Irregular
|
High | |
|
macrohive.com
|
Former Deutsche Bank. Weekly COT analysis, macro positioning, EM flows. Best independent COT commentary to pair with our CFTC data.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
Substack — Gold & Monetary System
2 sources
|
||||
|
theobserver.substack.com
|
Deep research on gold market structure, central bank buying data, Western dishoarding. Best independent gold analyst. Essential for gold narrative.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
macleodfinance.substack.com
|
Gold standard economist. Dollar decline, gold as monetary reserve, Austrian school framework. Weekly analysis of gold-currency dynamics.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
X / Twitter — Real-Time Signal
6 sources
|
||||
|
twitter.com/robin_j_brooks
|
Daily FX charts, EM capital flows, bond market stress indicators. Best real-time EM signal on Twitter.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
twitter.com/Brad_Setser
|
China reserve data, EM flow analysis, Treasury foreign demand. Essential for dollar and EM narratives.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
twitter.com/edyardeni
|
Daily market commentary. Bond vigilante calls. Rate path views. Real-time update of his published research.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1
|
Bloomberg bond markets reporter. Real-time Treasury auction results, yield moves, credit market commentary. First to report bond market stress.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
twitter.com/NickTimiraos
|
WSJ Fed reporter. The most reliable source for Fed communication leaks and rate decision context. Essential for Fed Independence narrative.
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
twitter.com/FedGuy12
|
Former NY Fed open market trader. Fed balance sheet mechanics, reserve dynamics, Treasury market plumbing. Substack: FedGuy.com.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
Politicians — US Congress & Administration
8 sources
|
||||
|
paul.senate.gov
|
Most vocal fiscal hawk in Senate. OBBBA: 'The math doesn't add up. $5T added to debt is not conservative.' Debt ceiling leverage strategy. Abolish the Fed thesis.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
treasury.gov / @SecBessent
|
3-3-3 plan: 3% deficit, 3% growth, 3M barrels/day oil. Treasury issuance decisions, debt management, dollar policy. Key counterpart to Fed Chair Warsh.
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
ronjohnson.senate.gov
|
OBBBA: warned bill adds $4T to national debt. Consistent deficit hawk. Budget Committee voice for fiscal restraint within GOP.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
norman.house.gov
|
'The buyers of our bonds are getting nervous we cannot pay it back.' House Freedom Caucus fiscal hawk. Real-time read on GOP deficit anxiety.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
barr.house.gov
|
'The bond market is telling Congress to get its fiscal house in order.' House Financial Services Committee. Bond market translation to political language.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
warren.senate.gov
|
Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member. Most aggressive on Fed independence and OBBBA fiscal impact. Leading Democratic voice on systemic financial risk.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
harris.house.gov
|
Led deficit hawk memo 'Senate OBBBA Failures.' Dollar-for-dollar cuts demand. Key vote counter for any fiscal legislation.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
Treasury-Fed Relationship
|
Track the Treasury-Fed accord negotiation. Bessent's 3-3-3 vs Warsh's independence pledge is the central institutional tension of 2026.
|
Ongoing
|
Critical | |
|
Broadcast Media — TV & Radio
8 sources
|
||||
|
cnbc.com
|
Morning consensus formation. Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin. First-mover on breaking macro. Squawk Box sets daily narrative tone.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
bloomberg.com/tv
|
Tom Keene / Jonathan Ferro on Surveillance. Lisa Abramowicz on Real Yield. Most institutional bond market coverage. Kay Herr vigilantes interview venue.
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
foxbusiness.com
|
Conservative fiscal narrative. Direct Trump administration access. First to get Treasury/White House commentary on fiscal policy. Critical for political framing.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
npr.org/sections/money
|
Best accessible economic narrative coverage. Planet Money on debt/deficit dynamics reaches mainstream audience. Tracks when stories go mainstream.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
reuters.com/markets
|
Primary Fed wire reporters. Howard Schneider is Timiraos equivalent at Reuters. Ann Saphir covers monetary policy. Essential for Fed rate decision context.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
ft.com/unhedged
|
Rob Armstrong and Ethan Wu. Daily markets newsletter and podcast. Robin Wigglesworth on AI as 'gnat vs railway boom.' Essential FT perspective.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
axios.com/economy
|
Axios Macro newsletter. Smart mainstream translation of bond vigilante narrative. Felix Salmon on fiscal dynamics. Strong 2023 vigilante coverage.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
nytimes.com/dealmake
|
Jeanna Smialek is primary Fed reporter. Andrew Ross Sorkin's DealBook for M&A/AI bubble narrative. NYT sets mainstream fiscal narrative.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
Academic & Policy — Universities & Research
7 sources
|
||||
|
primeeconomics.org
|
Director of PRIME. AI bubble: 'Having to amass $1T+ in cash to support investment is what everybody talks about as a bubble.' Debt and monetary system scholar.
|
Monthly
|
Medium | |
|
ft.com/alphaville
|
Compares AI capex to railway mania 1860s. Best historical financial market analyst in mainstream press. Daily Alphaville is essential reading.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
eichengreen.berkeley.edu
|
Leading international monetary historian. Dollar dominance, gold standard, Bretton Woods scholarship. Essential for gold and EM currency narratives. Stealth erosion of dollar thesis.
|
Monthly
|
High | |
|
scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff
|
This Time Is Different co-author. Debt thresholds, sovereign risk. Most cited academic on debt-to-GDP danger zones. Essential for bond vigilante academic framing.
|
Monthly
|
High | |
|
carmenmreinhart.com
|
This Time Is Different co-author with Rogoff. Debt crises, inflation, EM vulnerability. Historical data on sovereign debt crises is foundational to archive.
|
Monthly
|
High | |
|
hks.harvard.edu/furman
|
Former Obama CEA Chair. Fiscal policy, inflation, Fed independence commentary. Regular Bloomberg/CNBC contributor on fiscal sustainability.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
piie.com/experts/blanchard
|
Former IMF Chief Economist. Safe interest rates and debt sustainability framework. When r < g: deficit spending is safe. His thesis is the bull case for US debt.
|
Monthly
|
Medium | |
|
Podcasts — Financial & Economic
6 sources
|
||||
|
bloomberg.com/oddlots
|
Already in list. Adding here as primary podcast source. Bond Car Wreck episode May 20 is the definitive audio document of the vigilante narrative.
|
3x/week
|
Critical | |
|
macromusings.substack.com
|
Monetary policy deep dives. Fed independence, NGDP targeting, central bank credibility. Best academic-practitioner bridge on monetary policy.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
siegel.wharton.upenn.edu
|
Jeremy Siegel is equity bull counterpoint. Stocks for the Long Run. Weekly podcast with Wharton economists. Useful for consensus bull case on equities.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
altm.org
|
Cato Institute monetary policy blog. Fed independence from a free-market perspective. Useful for libertarian/sound money framing of vigilante narrative.
|
Weekly
|
Low | |
|
theinvestorspodcast.com
|
Large audience for Buffett/Dalio framework. Gold, macro, value investing. When billionaire investors' views reach mainstream investors. Good sentiment gauge.
|
Weekly
|
Low | |
|
capitalallocationspodcast.com
|
CIO interviews. Tracks how institutional money managers are thinking about AI, bonds, gold. Best access to how endowments and foundations are positioning.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
Asia-Pacific -- Japan, China, India
7 sources
|
||||
|
asia.nikkei.com
|
Premier English-language Asian business daily. BOJ policy, yen carry trade, Japanese sovereign debt dynamics. Essential for EM currency and bond vigilante narratives.
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
scmp.com/business
|
China capital flows, PBOC policy, yuan dynamics, Belt and Road debt. Best English-language China financial coverage. Essential for EM and gold de-dollarization narrative.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
caixinglobal.com
|
Independent China economic data -- often more accurate than official statistics. China PMI, capital outflows, property sector stress. Essential for China hard landing and EM risk.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
economictimes.indiatimes.com
|
India largest business daily. RBI decisions, rupee vulnerability, Indian gold demand (world's largest gold consumer alongside China). Essential for gold narrative.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
thediplomat.com/topics/economy
|
Premier Asia-Pacific geopolitics and economics. Covers EM stress triggers -- Taiwan tensions, South China Sea, Korean peninsula -- that drive EM capital flight.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
eastasiaforum.org
|
Australian National University. Best English-language Asia-Pacific policy economics. China rebalancing, regional trade, monetary cooperation.
|
3x/week
|
Medium | |
|
straitstimes.com/business
|
Singapore-based. Best coverage of ASEAN economies, Singapore dollar dynamics, regional sovereign wealth funds (GIC, Temasek) gold and bond positioning.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
Europe -- Eurozone, Germany, France
6 sources
|
||||
|
eurointelligence.com
|
Daily briefing on Eurozone political economy. Best single source for ECB dynamics, German fiscal politics, French sovereign risk. Munchau predicted 2010 crisis correctly.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
handelsblatt.com/english
|
Germany's leading business daily. Bundesbank hawk perspective, German coalition fiscal politics, ECB dissent voices. Essential for European bond vigilante analog.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
lesechos.fr
|
France's leading financial daily. French sovereign spread dynamics, Macron fiscal politics, European debt sustainability debates. French perspective on bond markets.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
ecb.europa.eu/pub/research
|
ECB working papers and research blog. Forward-looking monetary policy research. Best source for what ECB economists are thinking before it becomes policy.
|
Weekly
|
Medium | |
|
bruegel.org
|
Europe's premier economic think tank. Sovereign debt sustainability, ECB independence, European fiscal framework analysis. Guntram Wolff, Silvia Merler.
|
Weekly
|
High | |
|
voxeu.org
|
Centre for Economic Policy Research. European academic economics, peer-reviewed policy analysis. When Eurozone academics weigh in on bond vigilantes and sovereign risk.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
Latin America -- Mexico, Brazil, Argentina
4 sources
|
||||
|
elfinanciero.com.mx
|
Mexico's leading financial daily. Peso dynamics, Banxico policy, NAFTA/tariff impact on MXN. COT data shows MXN at 85th %ile short -- frontline EM vulnerability.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
valor.com.br
|
Brazil's premier financial daily. Real dynamics, BCB policy, Brazilian sovereign spread. Brazil is the largest EM economy and a key contagion test case.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
buenosairesherald.com
|
Argentina dollarization experiment under Milei. Peso dynamics, IMF program status, parallel exchange rate. Real-time laboratory for EM monetary experiment.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
bloomberglinea.com
|
Bloomberg's Spanish-language Latin America service. Covers all major LatAm economies in real time. Best aggregator for regional EM currency stress.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
Middle East & Africa -- Oil, Gold, Petrodollar
4 sources
|
||||
|
arabnews.com/economy
|
Saudi sovereign wealth (PIF), Vision 2030, oil pricing strategy. OPEC+ production decisions drive oil price which feeds inflation and gold narratives.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
gulfnews.com/business
|
UAE and Gulf economy. Petrodollar recycling into US Treasuries and gold. Saudi and UAE sovereign wealth fund positioning is increasingly gold-weighted.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
al-monitor.com/economy
|
Iran sanctions, Strait of Hormuz risk premium, Turkey-Iran-Russia alternative payment systems. Geopolitical triggers for oil price spikes and gold rallies.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
businesslive.co.za
|
South African rand dynamics, SARB policy, gold mining output (South Africa is major gold producer). Rand is a key EM stress indicator alongside MXN and TRY.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
Global Multilateral & Wire Services
6 sources
|
||||
|
project-syndicate.org
|
Roubini, Rogoff, Summers, El-Erian, Stiglitz all publish here. Best single aggregator of establishment economist views globally. Essential daily read.
|
Daily
|
Critical | |
|
afp.com/en/agency/press-releases-newsfeed
|
French wire service. Best coverage of francophone Africa EM stress, European political risk, Middle East energy. Widest non-Anglo geographic reach.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
apnews.com/hub/business
|
Widest geographic reach for breaking EM events. First wire for sovereign default announcements, central bank emergency decisions, currency crisis declarations.
|
Daily
|
High | |
|
dw.com/en/business
|
German public broadcaster. Euro perspective on dollar dominance, European fiscal debates, German economic slowdown implications for ECB policy.
|
Daily
|
Medium | |
|
qz.com/economics
|
Global economics journalism with strong EM coverage. Data-driven, chart-heavy. Good for visualizing EM capital flows and currency stress in accessible format.
|
Daily
|
Low | |
|
thewire.in/economy
|
Independent Indian journalism. RBI politics, Indian fiscal policy, rupee dynamics from a critical perspective that BRICS de-dollarization angle.
|
Daily
|
Low | |