Tracking
Since 2023US Debt / Bonds
Bond Vigilantes Return
The Fed cut 100bps. Long yields rose 100bps. BofA declared the bond vigilantes back in May 2026. The market is transmitting a message about sovereign credit risk that no rate cut can address.
Bull Case
“The US can always finance its debt — we issue the reserve currency”
Bear Case
“Fiscal dominance is taking hold — the bond market is no longer treating US debt as risk-free”
Key Indicators
10-year yield · Treasury auction bid-to-cover · Term premium (ACMTP) · Foreign CB holdings
Since 2024Monetary Policy
Fed Independence Under Threat
Kevin Warsh sworn in May 22. 70% of economists concerned about erosion of Fed independence. Arthur Burns is the historical reference point.
Bull Case
“Warsh has pledged independence — institutional norms will hold”
Bear Case
“Fiscal dominance preconditions are strengthening — the pressures are already there”
Key Indicators
FOMC dissent votes · Fed funds rate vs expectations · 5yr/5yr inflation breakeven
Since 2022AI / Tech
AI Capex Bubble — Euphoria II
57% of investors cite tech bubble as biggest risk for 2026. Nvidia +58% YTD. $715B in hyperscaler capex. Sequoia’s $600B question still unanswered.
Bull Case
“AI is the greatest technological transformation in history — not having exposure is the biggest risk”
Bear Case
“ROI hasn’t materialized — $600B in capex needs revenue to justify it”
Key Indicators
Hyperscaler capex vs AI revenue · Nvidia quarterly revenue · Enterprise AI adoption rates
Since 2025FX / Dollar
Dollar Decline — End of Dollar Dominance?
Dollar weakened throughout 2025. DXY -9% YTD. Central banks diversifying reserves. The de-dollarization narrative is gaining traction — but dollar remains reserve currency by wide margin.
Bull Case
“There is no credible alternative — the euro, yuan, and gold cannot replace dollar infrastructure”
Bear Case
“Dollar dominance is fading — fiscal irresponsibility is accelerating dedollarization”
Key Indicators
Central bank reserve composition · DXY trajectory · Treasury auction foreign demand
Since 2022Commodities
Gold at $4,577 — Bubble or New Order?
Gold hit $5,589 ATH in January 2026 before pulling back 18%. Central banks bought record 1,044 tonnes in 2023. Structural shift in monetary system or late-cycle mania?
Bull Case
“Central bank buying is structural — the dollar era is ending”
Bear Case
“Real yields are rising — gold’s traditional headwind is back”
Key Indicators
Real yields (TIPS) · Central bank purchase data · Dollar index · COT positioning
Since 2025Trade / Policy
Tariffs — Liberation Day Consensus Flip
April 2 Liberation Day tariffs triggered the fastest consensus reversal since COVID. From “tariffs are inflationary” to “tariffs are negotiating tools” in 90 days.
Bull Case
“Tariffs are a negotiating tool — deals will be struck, damage is temporary”
Bear Case
“Uncertainty is the damage — investment delays compound regardless of outcome”
Key Indicators
Trade deficit monthly · CPI goods component · ISM manufacturing PMI · Deal announcements
Since 2021China / EM
China Property — Imminent Collapse (Again)
Evergrande liquidated. Country Garden restructuring. Developers failing. Beijing stimulus repeatedly disappoints. The collapse has been “imminent” for three years.
Bull Case
“Beijing will not allow systemic collapse — policy support will come”
Bear Case
“Japan 1990 playbook — zombie developers, deflation, lost decade”
Key Indicators
Property sales data · Local government debt · PBOC policy
Since 2022Credit Markets
Private Credit — Hidden Leverage
$1.7 trillion in private credit at floating rates. Most loans have not been stress-tested at current rates. Mark-to-market losses hidden by lack of public pricing.
Bull Case
“Private credit is resilient — covenants are stronger than pre-GFC”
Bear Case
“$1.7T at floating rates with no price discovery — a hidden GFC”
Key Indicators
Default rates · Dividend recaps · BDC performance
Since 2024Japan / FX
Japan Carry Trade — Early Unwind
BOJ raising rates for the first time in 17 years. The yen carry trade — borrow at 0%, invest elsewhere — is the largest structural trade in global markets. Early unwind signals visible.
Bull Case
“The BOJ will move slowly — carry unwind will be gradual”
Bear Case
“$4 trillion carry trade unwinding is non-linear — August 2024 was a preview”
Key Indicators
USD/JPY · BOJ rate path · Vol spikes
Since 2022US Housing
US Housing — Locked Market
70% of mortgages locked in below 4%. Sellers won’t move. Buyers can’t afford to. Transaction volume at 30-year lows. A frozen market is not a stable market.
Bull Case
“Housing is supply-constrained — prices will hold even if volume falls”
Bear Case
“Lock-in effect breaks when unemployment rises — forced sellers appear”
Key Indicators
Existing home sales volume (NAR monthly) · 30-year mortgage rate · Lock-in rate
Since 2023Middle East / Oil
Middle East War — Oil Shock Risk
IMF April 2026 WEO titled “Shadow of War.” Iran-Israel direct exchange. Strait of Hormuz vulnerability. Oil at $65 despite geopolitical risk — the market is not pricing the tail.
Bull Case
“Oil markets are well-supplied — geopolitical risk is priced in”
Bear Case
“Strait of Hormuz closure = 1973 playbook — stagflation shock”
Key Indicators
Strait of Hormuz shipping data · Iran nuclear timeline · Oil inventories
Since 2021Inflation / Rates
Inflation Rebound — “Sticky” Narrative
The soft landing declared in December 2023 is being stress-tested. Services inflation remains sticky. Tariff pass-through adds to upside risk.
Bull Case
“Inflation is sticky at 3.8% but under control — no return to 2022 levels”
Bear Case
“Middle East war + tariffs + fiscal spending = inflation reacceleration”
Key Indicators
Monthly CPI prints · Oil price trajectory · Fed response · Wage growth (ECI)
Global Financial Crisis
2007–2009 · Credit / Banking
Dot-com Bubble
1995–2002 · Technology
COVID-19 Pandemic
2020–2023 · Macro
Volcker Shock
1979–1983 · Monetary Policy
LTCM Collapse
1998 · Hedge Fund / Systemic
Black Wednesday
1992 · FX / Soros
SVB Crisis
2023 · Banking
OPEC Oil Embargo
1973 · Geopolitics / Oil
Commercial Real Estate
2022–Present · Monitoring
Zombie Companies
2022–Present · Monitoring
Social Security Crisis
2033 depletion · Monitoring
Deglobalization
2018–Present · Monitoring
Great Depression
1929–1939 · Historical
Oil Shock & Stagflation
1973–1982 · Historical
Plaza Accord 1985
1985 · FX / Historical
All 53 narratives →