Live — Forming Now
20 narratives
Bond Vigilantes Return
Monitoring
US Debt / Bonds · 2022—Present
Fed Independence Under Threat
Monitoring
Monetary Policy · 2024—Present
Gold — $4,577
Monitoring
Commodities · 2022—Present
AI Capex Bubble
Monitoring
AI / Technology · 2022—Present
Dollar Decline
Monitoring
FX / Dollar · 2025—Present
Tariffs — Consensus Flip
Monitoring
Trade / Policy · 2025—Present
China Property Collapse
Monitoring
China / Real Estate · 2021—Present
Private Credit Leverage
Monitoring
Credit Markets · 2022—Present
Japan Carry Trade Unwind
Monitoring
Japan / FX · 2024—Present
US Housing — Locked Market
Monitoring
Real Estate · 2022—Present
Middle East War Risk
Monitoring
Geopolitics / Oil · 2023—Present
Commercial Real Estate Collapse
Monitoring
Credit / Real Estate · 2022—Present
US Debt & Fiscal Reckoning
Monitoring
Fiscal / Sovereign · 2023—Present
Deglobalization & Reshoring
Monitoring
Trade / Geopolitics · 2018—Present
Sovereign AI Race
Monitoring
Geopolitics / Technology · 2022—Present
Zombie Companies
Monitoring
Corporate Credit · 2022—Present
Social Security Insolvency
Monitoring
Fiscal / Demographics · 2025—2035
Student Debt & Gen Z Wealth Gap
Monitoring
Consumer / Demographics · 2023—Present
AI Bubble or Revolution?
Monitoring
Technology · 2022—Present
US Debt Reckoning
Monitoring
Fiscal / Sovereign · 2023—Present
Recent History — 2008 to Present
11 narratives
Global Financial Crisis
Resolved
Credit / Banking · 2007—2009
SVB & Regional Bank Crisis
Resolved
Banking · 2023
UK Gilt Crisis
Resolved
Sovereign / Fiscal · 2022
COVID-19 Pandemic
Resolved
Macro / Public Health · 2020—2023
Taper Tantrum
Resolved
Fed / EM · 2013
Eurozone Debt Crisis
Resolved
Sovereign Debt · 2010—2015
FTX Collapse
Resolved
Crypto / Fraud · 2022
ESG Bubble
Resolved
Investment Strategy · 2019—2024
The SPAC Boom
Resolved
Equity / IPO · 2020—2022
Crypto Cycle
Resolved
Digital Assets · 2017—2023
Dot-com IPO Fraud
Historical
Securities Fraud · 1999—2003
1990s — The Age of Contagion
7 narratives
Long-Term Capital Management
Resolved
Hedge Fund / Systemic · 1994—1998
Asian Financial Crisis
Resolved
EM Currency · 1997—1998
Russia Default 1998
Resolved
Sovereign Default · 1998
Mexico Peso Crisis
Resolved
EM Currency · 1994—1995
Dot-com Bubble
Resolved
Technology / Equity · 1995—2002
Black Wednesday
Resolved
FX / Sovereign · 1992
S&L Crisis
Resolved
Banking / Regulation · 1986—1995
1970s–1980s — Inflation, Oil & Debt
7 narratives
OPEC Oil Embargo 1973
Historical
Commodities / Geopolitics · 1973—1974
Oil Shock & Stagflation
Resolved
Commodities / Macro · 1973—1982
Volcker Shock
Resolved
Monetary Policy · 1979—1983
Plaza Accord 1985
Historical
FX / Coordination · 1985—1990
Latin American Debt Crisis
Resolved
Sovereign Debt · 1982—1989
Black Monday 1987
Historical
Equity Markets · 1987
Nixon Closes the Gold Window
Historical
Monetary System · 1971
Modern EM — Crisis Patterns
3 narratives
Japanese Bubble — The Lost Decades Template
1 narratives
Historical — The Foundational Events
4 narratives